As the fantasy baseball season reaches its halfway point, it’s important to continually assess your team and make strategic moves to improve your chances of success. This week, we’ll focus on the concept of buying high and selling low, a daily fantasy baseball strategy that can help you capitalize on the value fluctuations of players in your league.
Buy High
Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
Hunter Greene is turning heads this season with his improved performance on the mound. Holding a 5-2 record with a solid 3.35 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 88.2 innings, Greene has made noteworthy strides in his third year. His success can be attributed to his impressive adjustments in contact suppression. Despite trading some strikeouts for improved control, Greene maintains elite strikeout metrics, with a K/9 of 9.9, supported by strikeout and whiff rates in the 78th and 82nd percentiles, respectively.
The most remarkable change has been reducing his barrel rate from 9% to 5.4%, and his hard-hit rate now stands strong in the 80th percentile. While he continues to navigate the challenges of pitching in Cincinnati—a notorious homerun-friendly park—Greene’s newfound ability to mitigate hard contact is promising.
Despite concerns about his injury history, if he can stay healthy, Greene is poised to be a game-changer in fantasy leagues.
Royce Lewis (3B – MIN)
Royce Lewis has been nothing short of spectacular through his first 18 games this season. He’s slashing an outstanding .348/.413/.848, with 17 runs scored, 10 home runs, and 14 RBI. His incredible start is not just a fluke—despite his injury history, Lewis has consistently shown elite production when healthy.
His underlying metrics are exceptional: if he had enough at-bats to qualify, his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA would all be in the 99th percentile or better. This is backed by a modest 15.5% strikeout rate, a commendable 11.3% walk rate, and a barrel rate of 19.2%. It’s clear that his power is legitimate, with ten homers in just 18 games speaks volumes.
Over his short major league career, spanning 94 games, including the postseason, Lewis boasts a .310/.373/.620 slash line, with 64 runs, 31 home runs, and 76 RBI. This kind of production is invaluable for fantasy managers, provided they stay on the field. While buying high might seem risky due to his injury-prone past, the talent and numbers indicate that he has the potential to be a cornerstone player for your fantasy roster.
Jeimer Candelario (1B, 3B – CIN)
Jeimer Candelario has emerged as a potent force in the Cincinnati Reds’ lineup since his sluggish start with the team. After an underwhelming onset, he has been on a tear since June 1, slashing .342/.346/.711 over 20 games. In this period, he has contributed significantly with 12 runs scored, eight home runs, 18 RBI, and three steals. His surge isn’t simply luck; Candelario’s metrics are consistent with his career norms in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon.
What sets Candelario apart this season is his career-high flyball and pull rates, both of which have translated into increased power output. Playing home games at Great American Ball Park, known for its hitter-friendly dimensions, should further augment his home run totals. Batting in the heart of the Reds’ order, Candelario is poised for ample run-producing opportunities, making him an invaluable asset for fantasy managers aiming to capitalize on his resurgent form.
Sell Low
Luis Gil (SP – NYY)
Luis Gil’s recent performance has highlighted the perils of holding onto a player showing signs of regression. In his latest outing, he lasted just 1.1 innings, surrendering seven earned runs on eight hits and two walks with only one strikeout against the Baltimore Orioles. This starkly contrasts his season stats, which still flaunt a 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a robust 10.7 K/9.
However, beneath these appealing numbers lie troubling indicators like a high 12.4% walk rate and a low 37.9% groundball rate. Such metrics, coupled with an average exit velocity in the 35th percentile, suggest potential for future blow-ups. Moreover, Gil’s innings are a looming concern; having never pitched more than 96 innings in any season and coming off Tommy John surgery, his 81.1 innings this year could prompt innings restrictions imposed by the Yankees.
Selling low now could be a prudent move to mitigate future risk and capitalize on his current value.
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